I Need a Costume

This might sound a bit strange since Halloween is still five months away, but I need a costume. That’s right, I need a costume and I need it by next weekend. You see, I have the distinct honor of having been invited to join a group of my friends for the first time on their annual excursion to one of Minnesota’s finest golf resorts from May 18-21 and play five or six rounds of drunken golf. The first round of golf is done wearing a costume for some reason, so I need a costume and it has to be a good one so I am turning to my friends in the blog-o-spehere for some advice.

First off, I have some simple rules regarding costumes. It cannot involve a mask or some kind of gloves that make it hard to hold a cocktail and actually drink said cocktail. Secondly, it has to be at least somewhat comfortable. Third, I have to be able to go to the bathroom easily. Fourth, I have a goatee and I’m not shaving it for a costume so it has to work as part of the ensemble. I can’t go as Superman, for instance, because everyone knows the Man of Steel doesn’t have a beard…know what I’m saying? These seem like simple enough prerequisites, but they rule out certain outfits. For instance, this photo of a “Beer Guy” costume, while very lame, meets my criteria. I know, I know, I can do better than that–but I need some help because time is of the essence.

One of the other guys going on this drinking trip emailed me a web site called buycostumes.com and it has a lot of pretty good ones. There’s a cool pimp costume, various TV and movie figures, and a new varaition of a costume I’ve donned on Halloween before: a shepherd. The shepherd costume works, I could carry the staff in my golf bag when not in use, and it also plays well with an obscure line from one of my favorite movies of all time, Fletch. However, like I said, I’ve been a shepherd once before so I kind of want to be something else.

Anyways, if anyone can help me out with some ideas or direct me to some cool web sites, I’d appreciate it. Thanks in advance.

Classic Showdown

From time to time I like to use this space at BoKnowz to showcase some of the baseball research and writing I’m doing for Inside Edge Scouting Services that appears online at ESPN.com Insider.

For today I put together an article on a topic that many fantasy baseball owners might find particularly interesting. I noticed on the schedule today that one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, Brandon Webb, was going to be squaring off with one of the hottest hitters, Chase Utley, when the Phillies visit the Diamondbacks in Phoenix this afternoon. Webb enters the game with a spotless 7-0 record and leads the majors in wins, while Utley leads the majors with 13 home runs. Matchups don’t get much more “marquee” than this.

It got me wondering how the two elite fantasy studs have fared against each other in the past. The first thing I found was that they didn’t face each other at all last year, so I had to go back to 2006 for the most recent data. The second thing I found is that the matchup has been a mismatch thus far and the Inside Edge data I uncovered was pretty startling. Those of you who are logged into your ESPN Insider accounts can click on the screen capture above for details that I think you’ll find life-changing. Too far? Ok, suffice it to say it’s pretty intriguing stuff. I for one am looking forward to seeing what transpires when the NL Cy Young front-runner faces the NL MVP front-runner (yes, I know it’s not even Memorial Day yet) this afternoon.

Who’s the Barber Here?

With the NFL Draft behind us, we now have a little better idea of what the fantasy football rankings look like as we head into mini-camp season. Earlier in the week I shared some initial musings in the wake of the draft, but some other storylines are emerging that will have ramifications for our cheat sheets as training camps and preseason games roll around. I’ll start with the situation in Dallas. The Cowboys drafting of Felix Jones serves two purposes: the one the Dallas brass is going with for now is that he provides a perfect complement to the talents of Marion Barber III and that the 1-2 punch should make them more of a Super Bowl contender. Of course, Jones is used to being “the other back,” having played in the shadow of Darren McFadden at Arkansas.

The other reason for drafting Jones—the one that’s not being talked about so much—is that Jones is the heir apparent to Barber should the Cowboys be unable to reach a long-term accord with the Pro Bowl back. Barber is eligible for unrestricted free agency after this season and the Cowboys reported offer of five years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-million was not accepted by Barber and his agent Drew Rosenhaus. Rumors that Rosenhaus was seeking LaDainian Tomlinson-type money for his client have since been denied. You needn’t read too closely between the lines to glean that the Jerry Jones Empire considers Jones more than just a complementary back and great kickoff-return man. They view him as a back capable of playing every down and giving them another home run threat. A not-so-veiled comparison to Emmitt Smith was even made in a news conference earlier this week.

For fantasy owners, however, the selection of Jones by the ‘Boys muddles Barber’s value considerably. After Julius Jones departed to Seattle via free agency, Barber appeared to be in line for his first full season of full-time duty—the prospect of which vaulted him up fantasy football cheat sheets well into the top 10 at running back. Having a player of Jones’ ability in the same backfield makes one wonder how much of a chance Barber will be afforded to carry a regular feature back load. The guess here is that MBIII will be the Man early on, but as the season progresses the rookie will be given more and more touches. Until we know more about how the two of them will be splitting time, Barber will remain on the outside of my top-15 running backs looking in.

50 More Days…

I have 50 more days to get ready for the first-annual Breast Cancer Ride. That means I need to finish all of my fundraising and all of my training in that time. I know I can do it, but it doesn’t look like I’m going to have much time to spare. I am roughly half-way to my fundraising goal of $1,000 and zero percent of the way to my goal of assembling a team to ride with me in honor of my wife Kari’s late mother, Jean Johnson.

As for my training, the weather finally cooperated today and I got out on the road and did 20.5 miles. The temp was near 60 and there wasn’t a cloud in the sky, but that wind sure takes its toll in the wide open spaces south of the river here in the greater Rosemount/Apple Valley region. Combine the wind with the rolling hills and it’s a heckuva good thigh-burning workout. I need to be riding up to 40 miles per outing a month from now so I think I’m on track…I just need to add about five miles a week. For a map of the route I will be biking along with additional information about the Ride, please download the insert from Minnesota Monthly magazine by clicking on the following link: MN_Monthly_BCR

If you have not already done so, I am asking you to help support the great cause for which I am riding. The money raised will benefit Open Arms of Minnesota, an organization that delivers nutritious meals to women battling breast cancer along with their caregivers and dependants. By the way, I should also tell you that the Breast Cancer Ride is still looking for volunteers to help crew the event…that doesn’t involve any biking and it’s a lot of fun so if you are interested in helping, but don’t think you can pedal 140 miles in two days, please consider being part of the crew.

There are two ways in which you can make a tax-deductible contribution to support me on the Ride. You can do it online at my personal page. Or you can send a check with my name on the memo line to the following address:

Breast Cancer Ride
Attn: Donations
4120 Lexington Way
Suite 185
Eagan, MN 55123

Send your check along with the Breast Cancer Ride donation form

Any amount, large or small, helps in the fight. I greatly appreciate your support!

RiDE ON, LiVE ON!

NFL Draft Fantasy Fallout

The NFL Draft is the unofficial start of the fantasy football season. It’s simple: once the draft is over we know which players are going to be on which teams, with the exception of June 1st cuts, injuries, holdouts, and other misc. roster meneuverings. I know of at least one league that is holding their draft Sunday night following the completion of the NFL draft…now THAT’S a league that can’t wait to get started. I would never advocate holding a draft so early; for me, the ideal time is late August. I’m participating in an industry expert mock draft on Monday night; however, we are not playing the league out.

I’ve been taking in a majority of the televised proceedings from Radio City Music Hall and I’ve started formulating some initial reactions from a fantasy football perspective…

The Falcons selection of Matt Ryan with the third overall pick didn’t mesh with my final mock draft…I changed my mind from Ryan (whom I had tabbed going to the Falcons in previous mocks published at FFChamps.com) to Glenn Dorsey at the last moment after learning of the groundswell of support for the LSU defensive tackle. I figured that just because I thought they should take Ryan didn’t mean they would. As it turns out, the pick of Ryan over Dorsey was a close call in the Falcons war room. Overall, I believe Dorsey has the higher upside, but Ryan provides the Falcons a new face of the franchise, a leader, and a legit marquee quarterback…something they desperately needed in the wake of the Michael Vick era. From a fantasy standpoint, Ryan, like all rookie quarterbacks, should not be counted on in redraft leagues. Not even as a backup. He will need a year or two. For now, the Falcons offense will run through Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.

The Dolphins selection of Jake Long with the first pick in the draft was a foregone conclusion since they had already agreed to terms with him on a deal prior to the big weekend function. The pick that raised some eyebrows, however, was the second-round selection of Long’s teammate Chad Henne, the quarterback who’s blindside he protected at University of Michigan. I was a little surprised that Henne lasted as long as he did, but it could pay off for him because I believe he’ll push hard by the second half of the 2008 season to be the starter in Miami. Remember, the guy currently atop the depth chart, John Beck, was brought in by the previous administration. Henne is a Bill Parcells pick and that will make a lot of difference when Beck struggles, as he inevitably will.

When the Panthers released running back Deshaun Foster at the end of the season, those of us fantasy owners with DeAngelo Williams rejoiced at the thought of him finally getting the job to himself. Williams, their first-round pick in 2006, had shown far more explosiveness than Foster ever had, yet had been relegated to splitting carries. Draft day was a buzzkill for Williams owners, as the Panthers spent their first pick on running back Jonathan Stewart from Oregon, a Jamal Lewis-esque bulldozer with good wheels. At a minimum, a running back committee in the offing again, but Stewart may just earn the starting job even though he’ll enter training camp as the backup to Williams. On a positive note, the Panthers addressed their need for offensive line help with the selection of Jeff Otah out of Pittsburgh. They had to give up next year’s first-round pick to get him, but if he is as good as advertised, the move will have been worth it. With Stewart and Williams in the backfield and Steve Smith and D.J. Hackett out wide, the Panthers have numerous weapons. But none of it will matter much if Jake Delhomme doesn’t come back all the way from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Fantasy owners really need to keep an eye on Panthers camp this summer for Delhomme updates and to see if Stewart wins the running back job outright.

Prior to my final mock draft, I had the Raiders selecting someone other than Darren McFadden. I figured they had enough backs on the roster and had myriad other glaring needs. Heck, they had just re-signed Justin Fargas, a 1,000-yard rusher last year, and had an impressive youngster in Michael Bush waiting in the wings. However, I ultimately came to my senses, disregarded Lane Kiffen’s quip that running back wasn’t an area of need, and realized that owner Al Davis would not be able to resist a player of Run DMC’s spectacular ability. McFadden gives the Raiders an immediate offensive presence and will provide quarterback JaMarcus Russell, last year’s number one overall pick, with a heckuva nice security blanket. Opposing defenses will need to key on stopping McFadden, which should open things up for Russell in the passing game. If wideout Javon Walker is healthy (a substantial if to be sure) the Raiders could have a surprising number of fantasy contributors.

NFL Draft Day One

The first two rounds of the 2008 NFL Draft were held Saturday…time to assess how well I did with my most recent mock draft predictions. There were a ton of trades in the first round (as usual) which destroyed any chance I had of nailing the right order, or even coming close for that matter. However, I did successfully forecast 26 of the 31 players who went in round one. I got six picks right–five of them were the right team in the same exact spot I predicted. Moreover, I’m also claiming a bulls eye on the Chiefs selection of Branden Albert with their second pick in the first round even though they traded up two spots to secure him. C’mon! Close eneough. I’m kicking myself because in the next-to-last mock draft that I did for FFChamps.com, I also had Ryan going to the Falcons, Dorsey to the Chiefs, and Gholston to the Jets. Here’s how the first round ended up, with the picks I correctly predicted in bold…

1. Miami Dolphins - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
3. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
4. Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
6. New York Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE, The Ohio State
7. New Orleans Saints - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
10. New England Patriots - Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
11. Buffalo Bills - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
12. Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
13. Carolina Panthers - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
14. Chicago Bears - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
15. Kansas City Chiefs - Branden Albert, OG/OT, Virginia
16. Arizona Cardinals - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
17. Detroit Lions - Gosder Cherilus. OT, Boston College
18. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
21. Atlanta Falcons - Sam Baker, OT, USC
22. Dallas Cowboys - Fleix Jones, RB, Arkansas
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
24. Tennesse Titans - Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
25. Dallas Cowboys - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
26. Houston Texans - Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
27. San Diego Chargers - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
28. Seattle Seahawks - Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
29. San Francisco 49ers - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
30. New York Jets - Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
31. New York Giants - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

Minnesota’s Missing Link

The Vikings acquisition of Jared Allen provides their defense with the one element it so desperately needed: a pass rusher. And we’re not talking about just any old pass rusher here; Allen led the NFL with 15.5 sacks last season and is the best pure pass-rusher in the league. Lining him up next to the best defensive tackle tandem in the league in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams gives the Purple the best defensive line in football. Tell me I’m wrong. Show me another team with three Pro Bowl linemen, including two (Kevin Williams and Allen) who are arguably the very best at their respective positions.

Is Allen the missing link between the Vikings and a championship? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s safe to say, however, he is the ingredient the Vikings defense has been missing. The Vikings have fielded statistically the best run defense in the NFL each of the past two seasons, limiting opponents to a paltry 68 yards per attempt during that time. However, their pass defense has literally been as bad as their run defense has been good during that same stretch, finishing dead last in the league in 2006 and 2007.

The primary issue with their pass defense has not been a lack of secondary talent, though the coverage is not totally blameless. The real issue has been the complete absence of a pass rush or even the threat of quarterback pressure. Their pass rush has been utterly anemic outside of the occasional blitz, and I don’t care how good your defensive backs are, when the quarterback has time to drop back, scan the defense, make a phone call, wink at the cheerleaders, and then choose the most open receiver, it’s going to be a problem.

Allen alone will not vault the Vikings into the upper echelon of pass defenses in the league, but if he sacks close to 20 quarterbacks and their pass defense is even average you can bet the Vikings will have the best all-around defense. Moreover, for those who play fantasy football, the Vikes are hands down the best fantasy defense heading into 2008 in most scoring formats. The lone exception may be in leagues that lump special teams in with team defense scoring because the Vikings are not particularly adept at returning punts and kicks…unless Allen can do that too. I know he used to be a long snapper, so you never know. Back to my point, though: the Vikes should be the most prolific fantasy defense this season because teams will not be able to run and now they won’t have all day to pass when they are forced to do so.

Turnovers and defensive touchdowns will be the result, and it’s not as though the Vikings needed help in that department. No defense has scored more defensive touchdowns over the last two seasons than the Vikes.

Was the deal that brought Allen to the Vikings fair? I think so. The Chiefs got quite a haul for a guy that everyone knew they had to trade. For a team with that kind of leverage handicap, getting a first-round pick along with two thirds and a switch of positions in the sixth is very commendable. The Chiefs are now loaded up with 13 picks in this weekend’s NFL draft, enough to plug many of the myriad roster holes Herm Edwards’ squad has.

As for the $74-million over six years, including $31 million in guaranteed money, the Vikings shelled out, it’s what the market dictated for a player of Allen’s caliber, given the $72 million Indianapolis paid Dwight Freeney. Moreover, the Vikings are getting Allen in the prime of his career. He is only 26 years old and he should be at or near the top of his game for the duration of the deal the Vikings gave him…provided he stays sober. And, as for that, just know that Allen has been clean for a year and a half and the threat of an NFL suspension will likely be erased if he has no further DWIs between now and October. My guess is that he’ll spend a chunk of that $74 million to have a little celebratory party and he’ll be one of the only ones not drinking.

Vikings fans, party up. Drink that Purple Kool-Aid because, with Allen on board, this is a playoff team. Now, if they can only find a way to prevent Tarvaris Jackson from screwing it up…

NFL Mock Draft

I published what I thought was going to be my final mock NFL draft of the year at FFChamps.com yesterday after the Jake Long deal with the Dolphins was confirmed and about 10 hours before the Jared Allen trade news broke. The Allen deal includes the Vikings sending the Chiefs their 17th overall pick in the draft, and therefore adds a new and important wrinkle to round one. Specifically, it changes the Chiefs motives with the fifth pick and it could have a domino effect on every subsequent pick. Complicating any first-round forecast is the distinct possibility of even more trades changing the draft order. Teams infatuated with players like Matt Ryan (pictured), Darren McFadden, or Glenn Dorsey will be making frantic phone calls before and during the draft in an attempt to move up and secure their rights before another team gets a chance to take them off the board. As of this afternoon, however, here is my best guess as to how the first round will unfold…

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia
3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
4. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Vernon Gholston, DE, The Ohio State
6. New York Jets – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
7. New England Patriots – Keith Rivers, LB, USC
8. Baltimore Ravens – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
9. Cincinnati Bengals – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
10. New Orleans Saints – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
11. Buffalo Bills – Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
12. Denver Broncos – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
13. Carolina Panthers – Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
14. Chicago Bears – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
15. Detroit Lions – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
16. Arizona Cardinals – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
17. Kansas City Chiefs – Branden Albert, OG/OT, Virginia
18. Houston Texans – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
19. Philadelphia Eagles – Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DeSean Jackson, WR, California
21. Washington Redskins – Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
22. Dallas Cowboys – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
24. Tennessee Titans – Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
25. Seattle Seahawks – Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
27. San Diego Chargers – Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
28. Dallas Cowboys – Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
29. San Francisco 49ers – Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
30. Green Bay Packers – Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
31. New England Patriots – Pick Forfeited
32. New York Giants – Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

For a thorough pick-by-pick analysis of each of these selections as well as thoughts on which teams will consider trading their picks, please visit www.fantasyfootballchamps.com and check out the aforementioned mock draft I published there yesterday. Note: you must be a subscriber to view the article.

Chone Alone

Diminutive former utility man Chone Figgins is the Angels’ every-day third baseman, but is absolutely nothing like other every-day third basemen. Figgins is a corner infielder in a middle infielder’s body… and with a middle infielder’s skill set. At 5-8, 180 soaking wet (with his cleats on) Figgins probably won’t ever reach double digit homers in a season (his career high is nine in 2006) or knock in 100 runs (his career best is 62, again in 2006) like the prototypical third baseman is “supposed” to do.

What he does is hit the ball and steal bases with the best of them. He is a rare fantasy baseball commodity, an oddball fantasy player to borrow a fantasy hoops term. Fantasy owners can usually count on their third baseman for home runs, RBI, and batting average, but Figgins allows owners flexibilty in that his forte is batting average, stolen bases, and runs scored. Injuries limited Chone to 115 games last year, but he still swiped at least 40 bases for the third consecutive season and his .330 batting average ranked second among all third basemen.

Figgins is off to another flying start in 2008; he currently leads the American League in batting with a .385 average. It got me to thinking what a full-season might look like so I did a little math and got some impressive stats. In his last full-season’s worth of games (162) he has 200 hits, a .328 batting average, 53 stolen bases, and 103 runs scored.

Indeed, Chone is alone in his class… a unique, valuable, and very underrated fantasy baseball talent.

NFL Strength of Schedule

The NFL released its 2008 schedule on Tuesday, and while I never put much stock in strength of schedule analysis, especially for fantasy football, it is always entertaining water cooler fodder. Particularly entertaining this year is the fact that last season’s undefeated team has the easiest schedule in the league this year. How’d that happen? Yeah, I know the Patriots get to play the 1-15 Dolphins twice, but c’mon!

Below you will find each team’s strength of schedule, ordered from toughest to easiest based on the last year’s winning percentage of this year’s opponents.

Steelers	0.598
Colts	0.594
Jaguars	0.559
Vikings	0.551
Ravens	0.551
Titans	0.551
Bengals	0.547
Texans	0.547
Browns	0.547
Lions	0.543
Bears	0.531
Packers	0.531
Redskins	0.523
Cowboys	0.523
Eagles	0.520
Giants	0.520
Rams	0.488
49ers	0.484
Seahawks	0.477
Buccaneers	0.469
Falcons	0.469
Cardinals	0.465
Dolphins	0.465
Panthers	0.465
Jets	0.457
Chiefs	0.453
Bills	0.449
Saints	0.449
Broncos	0.445
Raiders	0.438
Chargers	0.422
Patriots	0.387

In terms of fantasy football analysis, the strength of schedule alone tells us almost nothing. Fantasy owners can begin gleaning some useful tidbits once the schedule is broken down into defensive splits (against the run and against the pass) but even then you must take into account all the offseason roster shuffling that has transpired, including free agency and the NFL draft. And even after all of that data is taken into account, the strength of your forecast grows less useful by the week because of injuries and the performance of the players throughout the season. Therefore, you can put some stock into forecasting the strength of opponents in September on draft day in August, but don’t bother using your schedule analysis of fantasy playoff time (weeks 14-16) for anything more than tie-breaker criteria when evaluating two players of similar value.