Too Good to be True

I knew it was too good to be true!

For anyone who ever questions my objectivity in analyzing sports, as I do for a living, I need only point to the fact that I have been a long-suffering Minnesota Vikings fan my entire life and my favorite football player of all time built his Hall of Fame career playing for the Vikes’ biggest rival, the Green Bay Packers. Yeah, I know it doesn’t make much sense. However odd, it made all the sense in the world (at least in my world) when my team started flirting with Brett Favre months ago. It was a perfect fit: favorite player on favorite team, one of the best quarterbacks of all time on a team that’s a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender, a West-Coast quarterback in a West-Coast system, etc.

Then yesterday, fate stepped in and snatched the ball away just as Charlie Brown was about to kick it. Favre decided not to un-retire. How’s that for a double negative?  A “double negative” summed up how I felt, and how many Vikings fans felt, when they heard the news yesterday.

Favre knows he can still play. Some part of him wants to still play — he still has that “itch.” Any reasonable football observer knows there aren’t 10 people on the planet who can throw the football better than he still can…just look at the NFL rosters for evidence.  However, Brett doesn’t want to play enough to endure the mental and physical grind that is an NFL season. He especially hates training camp. The fact that his agent Bus Cook even today is saying that Favre is remaining retired at this time and Favre still plans to go down to the local high school and toss the ball around with the kids fuels the fire for conspiracy theorists who believe it’s all part of a big master plan. Favre will skip training camp and then come calling when the Vikes break camp and start preseason games. It makes too much sense, but I’m not holding my breath.

I’m done waiting and I’m done hoping. It’s time to move on.

It’s time to see what Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson are made of as they battle for the starting job in camp.  I favor Rosenfels because he is a much more accurate thrower than T-Jack. That’s faint praise, though, because Jackson is not exactly known for his ability to make all the passes. Jackson has a superb arm, good mobility, and knows the Vikings playbook. He’s probably the favorite to start in Week 1 because of his experience in the Vikings system. However, I’ve seen what he can do and remain unimpressed. Either Jackson takes several strides forward and wins the job convincingly, or Rosenfels should be given the chance.

What happens if one of them gets injured or looks completely and utterly inept? Well, then the Vikings will have their choice of No. 4s, either the guy currently sitting on the sidelines holding a clipboard with a 4 on his purple jersey, John David Booty…or the “retired” guy sitting on a tractor down in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.  My money in that scenario is on a Booty call, but as much as I’d like to turn the page I’ve learned to never say never when it comes to Favre.

The Island is Calling

A week from now, on August 1,  I will hop on my bike and pedal from Southdale shopping center in Edina, Minnesota to Treasure Island Resort and Casino near Red Wing, Minnesota. Then the next day I’ll wake up early and ride back to Apple Valley, Minnesota.  Of course, as you can probably tell from the tab at the top of the page or the logo on the right hand side, my bike excursion will be for The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride. To learn more about this great event and why I care enough to ride my bike nearly 150 miles in two days, please click on either the tab at the top or that pink bike logo over there. Or just visit BreastCancerRide.org.

Two weeks after the Ride I’ll be driving back to Treasure Island for a much different reason, the Fantasy Football Camp with KFAN Radio.  I will be co-hosting the “Fantasy Football Weekly” radio show per usual that morning from 10-12 on the ‘FAN, but we’ll be broadcasting the show live from Treasure Island at the event. Our radio program will be followed by a live mock draft in which I will take part along with my co-hosts, other on-air personalities from the station, and assorted other fantasy experts from around the industry. After that, my co-hosts and I will deliver even more fantasy tips and analysis…stuff that doesn’t fit into a normal radio show format. Plus we’ll have a question and answer session. As you can see in this press release regarding the event, there will even be space set aside for your league to hold their draft.

We did a similar event to this with the radio station two years ago and it was a big hit. The crowd was huge and we had a lot of fun. I encourage any of you who are hard-core fantasy football fans to make the trek to Treasure Island for the function. I hope to see you there!

As they say, “the island is calling.”  Apparently I’m heeding the call.

Catching a Ball at a Game

I recently took my 10-year-old son Holden to a couple baseball games at the worst stadium in the Major Leagues, the Metrodome, and we came pretty close to getting a foul ball.  By the way, I think I speak for a few million Twins fans when I say that I can’t wait until Target Field opens next year! My wife and I have already ordered our season tickets — lower level, just past third base. Anyways, back to the story… Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira hit one that landed about eight feet from us and was caught on the rebound off a lady’s shoulder by some guy two seats in front of me.  Holden is now more obsessed than ever with the possibility of catching a ball at a game. He’s never been lucky enough to get one.

I completely get the fascination with catching a ball at a game. Granted, the excitement of getting one is completely disproportionate with the actual value of the object you are getting nine out of 10 times.  The exception would be a milestone home run by a famous, non-steroid using player…I wonder what Barry Bonds’ record home run ball would have fetched on E-bay were he not a juicer.  Regardless, a value cannot be placed on a game-caught ball to the person that catches it. Everyone–young and old–wants one. Admit it, so do you.  For some reason it’s like the Holy Grail of going to a game.

I almost caught one when I was a kid. It was during batting practice prior to the Twins home opener against the A’s back at old Metropolitan Stadium.  It must have been the late 1970s. We were sitting in the left field bleachers (thanks for letting us skip school, Mom and Dad) and somebody hit one that made a splash landing in the beer cup of a guy right in front of me.  That’s the only time I came remotely close to getting one as a kid.

As an adult, I once got a foul ball off the bat of Darryl Strawberry when I was in the parking lot of a St. Paul Saints (Northern League) game, but that doesn’t really count because I was not in the stands, nor was it a big-league game.  I was having too much fun tailgating to go into the game and Straw just happened to hit one over the roof of the stadium and it rolled to me. It’s not the same grabbing a ball from under the bumper of a car as it is snaring one hit into the stands.

Then a few years ago I got a ball at a Twins game that was fouled down into the visitor’s bullpen at the Metrodump when the ball boy flipped it into the stands. It just happened to come right to me. Immediately upon catching it, however, I was surrounded by a horde of kids yelling in unison, “Can I have the ball?! Can I have the ball?!” There was no “please;” it was like I was expected to hand it over…which I did to one of them.  It was the easy way out. Not only would I have been called names by a gang of angry elementary school kids, I would have been called worse by the adults around me.  I had the ball in my hands for less than five seconds; I didn’t even get to really look at it. But flipping it to a kid was easier to do than explaining to the other 30,000 in attendance that I wanted to take the ball home and give it to my son.

Even though it would not have been quite the same as catching one himself, in retrospect I hope that wasn’t Holden’s last good chance of getting a ball at a game. It probably wasn’t, but I’ve never caught one and I’ve been to a bazillion big-league games.

My advice to my son or to any other kid (or kid at heart) looking to catch that elusive game-used ball is to keep your fingers crossed on one hand and your glove on the other. Keep your eye on the ball… and don’t get your hopes up.

Saying no to Curveballs

So there we were this past weekend, my son Holden and I playing catch with a baseball outside the tent next to a lake on his first ever camping trip. After about 10 minutes, I decided to mess with him so I threw him a curveball — and he missed catching it as it broke away from his glove.  He had a puzzled look on his face when he asked me “What was that?” I laughed as I told him it was a curveball.

Of course, he immediately wanted to know how to throw one and I immediately began the internal debate on whether or not I should show him how.  I know, I know…I’ve heard all the warnings. You’re not supposed to teach your kids how to throw a curveball or slider or any breaking pitches in Little League. They are too young, their arms, elbows, tendons, and ligaments are still developing, etc.  I get all of that. But I figured, what the heck, his baseball season is over and he won’t be playing again until next spring so it’s not like he’s going to be practicing it.  Besides, at 10 years old, I seriously doubted he could throw one anyways.

So I gave him a quick lesson. My wife Kari, always quick with the camera, captured the moment of me showing him how to grip it.

He tried to throw it. Once. It was nowhere close to being a curveball and came nowhere close to me. Then he went back to just throwing normally.  I know my son and I knew I had nothing to really worry about. That’s the only reason I bothered to give him the 30-second lesson: I knew it wouldn’t stick.

I’m probably going to coach his team next year and I’m going to make sure that none of the kids are throwing curveballs (like the kid we saw in his end-of-the-season tournament a few weeks ago). Did we throw curveballs as kids? You bet we did. I was throwing curves, sliders, sinkers, split-fingered fastballs, you name it.  So were many of my friends. And we lived to tell about it. But we also did a lot of other stupid things that I hope my son never does (although he’ll probably do his fair share like most kids). The point is that if you show your Little Leaguer anything, it should be how to throw a changeup.  And only do that after working extensively on location. Command and changing speeds are far more important. Even pitchers without huge fastballs can get by with location and changeups.

My son will have time to learn curveballs when he gets older, much older. I won’t really show him how until he’s maybe in high school…by which time his friends will have already probably shown him.  I’m not stupid.  I’ll be keeping an eye out for those breaking pitches next season and I’ll put a quick end to them if I see them being thrown.

I know, that’s no fun. But it’s the right thing to do.

NFL Strength of Schedule

I always find NFL strength of schedule analysis to be a bit overrated because it is based solely on last year’s winning percentages and does not account for the changes made since via free agency and the draft. Nor does it account for injuries. Case in point: does anyone think the New England Patriots will be worse this year than they were last year when Tom Brady essentially missed the entire season?

Nevertheless, looking at the strength of schedule can give one an approximate idea of how soft or hard a given team’s schedule is at a glance. It’s entertaining and good water cooler fodder. To that end, the table on the right shows this year’s strength of schedule ranked from toughest to easiest.

In terms of its usefulness for fantasy football purposes, the strength of schedule purely based on winning percentages from last year has a limited application. It is far better to analyze how opposing defenses fared against the run and against the pass and then break those stats down further into yardage and touchdowns to determine how that translates into points in your league’s particular scoring system.

Even then, the schedule analysis must be tempered by the fact that it’s still just last year’s stats and many things can change from year to year. In that context it is interesting data to have, yet it should not be a primary determining factor in doing your player rankings. It is most useful when deciding between two players at the same position with similar values. Using the strength of each player’s schedule can act as a tie-breaking factor in these cases.

FantasyFootballChamps.com has a great series on S.O.S. that takes this fantasy perspective. I would encourage FFChamps subscribers to have a look if they find this sort of thing interesting and helpful.

Radio Show

It was good to be back on the radio airwaves today!

I joined Paul Charchian and John Tuvey in studio at KFAN Radio this morning to talk fantasy football for an hour. Our primary topic was sleepers and I touted Shaun Hill, Ray Rice, and Justin Gage as three of my favorite underrated players this preseason. We also got into where we’d rank each of the primary Vikings players since KFAN is the Vikings flagship station. John and I say Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 player in fantasy football; Charch went with Maurice Jones-Drew (wrong answer!).

Today’s hour of fantasy football speculation was a precursor of sorts to our “Fantasy Football Weekly” radio program which kicks off its 15th season on August 1. The show can be heard Saturdays from 10-12 noon CT on KFAN and KFAN.com, where it can also be downloaded (after it airs) in their “FAN on Demand” section.  It is the longest-running and most popular show of it’s kind on the air. Check it out sometime and see why!

To listen to Tuesday’s program, click here.

As I mentioned, the show begins August 1st; however, I will be out of the studio that day riding my bike on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride.  My plan is to call in from the road that day for about five minutes, but we’ll have to see if I remember to do so while trying to bike nearly 150 miles in two days.

By the way, if you wish to sponsor me on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride, you may do so online at my personal page here.  Thanks in advance for your generosity!

First-Half Awards

The Major League Baseball season has reached the half-way mark and the All-Star game is on Tuesday. Therefore, it must be time for me to join in with all the other baseball pundits and recognize achievement for the first half. If there were actual awards for such things and I had a vote on the matter, here is who I would be handing the hardware to:

National League Rookie of the Year: It hasn’t been a stellar year for NL rookie thus far, but I’m going with Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus on this one. He’s playing every day, leads NL rookies with 11 home runs, and is hitting .281 with 34 RBI and 43 runs scored. I have a feeling, however, that by the end of the season Braves pitcher Tommy Hanson will have won my vote. He’s gone 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA since getting called up June 7.

American League Rookie of the Year: This one is a little closer, but I have been the most impressed by Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero. Aside from his two rusty starts in May after coming off the disabled list, Romero has been dominant. He has won four in a row to up his record to 7-3 to go with a 3.00  ERA. Apologies to my runners-up Andrew Bailey of the A’s, Brad Bergesen of the Orioles, and Rick Porcello of the Tigers.

National League Cy Young Award: Another tough call, but I’m giving my support to Tim Lincecum of the Giants over the D-Backs’ Dan Haren.  Tim ranks either first or second in the NL in virtually every pitching category: wins, winning percentage, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, innings pitched, and complete games. That’s all! If Lincecum holds on he will join Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Sandy Koufax as the only back-to-back NL Cy Young award winners.

American League Cy Young Award: I thought this would be a little closer than it was, but after reviewing the numbers again Zack Greinke is the clear choice over the Blue Jays Roy Halladay. I still think Halladay is the best starting pitcher in the majors right now, but Greinke has had a ridiculous first half, leading the AL in innings pitched and ERA, ranking second in wins and WHIP, and third in strikeouts.

National League MVP: Um, if Albert Pujols is not a unanimous selection for the MVP award, I don’t know who is.  He leads the planet in home runs and RBI and ranks second in the National League in batting average. This is shaping up as a triple crown season, folks. We haven’t had one of those since 1967 when Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat. The last NL player to do it was Joe Medwick in 1937. Simply put, he’s the best player in the game.

American League MVP: I struggled with this one, both because I didn’t want to seem like a homer and because I could not decide which Twins player to side with. Who in the American League is having a better season than Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau? The Twins catcher leads the majors in batting average by a substantial margin and also leads the AL in on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. Morneau meanwhile ranks near the league lead in home runs with 21, ranks second in RBI with 70, and is ninth in batting at .310. For now we’ll give the edge to the gold-glove catcher. Runners-up: Jason Bay and Torii Hunter.

There you have it, my first-half picks. I’m pretty sure some of them will look different by the end of the season. Feel free to weigh in with your opinion on the best of the best from the first half by leaving a comment.

Blue October Concert

My wife Kari and I went to see Blue October in concert at First Avenue on June 25th. It was the second time we have seen them together at that particular venue, which I like to think of as “The House that Prince built.”  Yes, I’m a geek…and a huge Prince fan. But I digress. Kari and I love Blue October’s music and we bought their new CD, called “Approaching Normal” the first day it came out back in March. We interrupted our family vacation in Florida to run to the record store and buy it. Priorities, you know! We listened to it in the truck the entire way home after listening to it repeatedly while still on vacation.  Loved it immediately.

Anyways, the show was fantastic, a little odd but great nonetheless. One “odd” thing about it was that the band played their entire album in order, song-by-song, to open the show before moving on to older material, including a couple of their hits (“Hate Me” and “Into the Ocean”) and some other “deep” tracks.  I’ve been to dozens and dozens of concerts over the years, but never have I seen a band play their entire new album from start to finish in that exact order to open a show. I don’t know if anyone else has ever seen or heard of this being done before, but it was a first for me. In some ways I liked it because it was different, but in other ways I didn’t because it seriously lacked any element of surprise and it was not very imaginative. Still, as I said, it was a really good show…probably one of the 10 best I have ever been to. Their best performance of the night came on one of their new songs called “Should be Loved.” They absolutely killed it live. It also happens to be my co-favorite song off their new album along with “Blue Skies.”

Another “odd” part of the night was that we found out prior to the show that Michael Jackson had died. It was weird, sad, and surreal. We couldn’t believe the news. At the Hard Rock Cafe across from First Avenue we were tipping back a few pre-concert libations watching MJ’s videos on DVD and toasting him. Then in walked a news crew from one of the local TV stations looking for “man-on-the-street” reaction to Michael Jackson’s death.  I was the first one they interviewed, but I cut the interview short in the middle of answering a question when we saw Blue October band members walk by outside the Hard Rock to the hotel next door.  I made a hasty exit to go out and shake the hand of lead singer Justin Furstenfeld. Kari and two of our friends made the cut for the news story that night. I did not.

It was unfortunate that Blue October didn’t play mine and Kari’s favorite song by them, “Calling You.” When we got married my wife walked down the aisle to an acoustic version of that song played by our friend, J.R. Anderson (he was with us at the show too). It was also the first song at our wedding reception dance and the song used for our wedding music video.  I had seen earlier set lists from their 2009 concert tour, none of which included the song, so I was not surprised when they did not play it.  Fortunately, we did get to see them do the song the last time we saw them at First Avenue, so it’s all good.

After this show we went out back by the tour bus to meet the band and snap a few photos.  Kari even put Justin, the lead singer, on the phone with my 15-year old step-daughter Kourtney (also a huge fan) to say hello. She was thrilled!

The best part of the encounter was that I had a chance to talk to Justin for a few minutes and tell him about how we included “Calling You” in our wedding. He remembered me from the pre-show handshake and came over to talk after all the groupies (ok, other groupies) were done taking pictures and getting autographs. Nice guy! It was a rare opportunity to tell an artist what their work means to you, and he seemed genuinely moved by our story. He even asked that we send him a copy of our wedding video.  We’ll have to get on that one of these days.

By the way, no, he is not flipping the bird in that photo of us. It’s a peace sign.

All in all it was a very, very memorable night…one I won’t soon forget.