Feeling A Draft

We’re little more than two weeks away from the NFL Draft and, subsequently, the unofficial start of the fantasy football season… time to get serious about projecting how the first round will play out. Over at FFChamps I published my first mock draft of the year exactly two months before the NFL draft, back on February 26, and published my second mock draft exactly one month before the real thing, back on March 26. Now I’m starting to think my top-10 in the first one is going to be closer to how things ultimately pan out.

Of course, any mock must be taken with a ginormous grain of salt given the trades that are likely to go down on draft day, leaving everyone’s mock in about as good of shape as their March Madness brackets that didn’t have four No. 1 seeds in the final four. By the way, I’d like to give a shout out to my cousin Kelly, a long-time KU fan. Congrats on your team’s victory. But I digress.

Word out of Miami today is that the Dolphins, who are “stuck” with the No. 1 pick since no one seems to want to trade for it, have begun negotiations with Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long. Who was that lone voice in the wilderness again who said six weeks ago that the Dolphins should make Jake the No. 1 pick in the draft? Who was that who actually published a mock that said he would be their pick? Oh yeah, that was me. However, I will stop patting myself on the back now. I don’t want to pull my arm out of socket, nor can I overlook the fact in the interest of full disclosure, that I succumbed to popular mock draft opinion in my second mock and had the other Long (Howie’s son, Chris) as Miami’s pick.

Obviously, for fantasy players, figuring out which Long goes first is just the subplot to the real story: who gets Arkansas running back Darren McFadden? Now that we are getting closer and closer to draft day, it’s time to pay closer attention to the coach speak emanating from war rooms from around the NFL such as the talk in Oaktown in advance of McFadden’s visit on Monday with Raiders officials. Said Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin: “Running back is really not a need for us.” Forgive me for finding it difficult to believe that officials from any 4-12 team can talk with a straight face about having needs at only certain positions. It seems to me that said team might have needs all over the depth chart and might be able to find room for a game-breaker of McFadden’s caliber—despite the presence of such “stalwarts” as Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan. Are Kiffen’s comments a coachspeak smokescreen? You bet. Do the Raiders actually have bigger needs than running back? Absolutely, which is why I still think they might pass on him.

Thus, as of right now, here is how (barring trades) I see the first 10 picks in this year’s NFL draft panning out…

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia
3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
4. Oakland Raiders – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
6. New York Jets – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
7. New England Patriots – D. Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
8. Baltimore Ravens – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
9. Cincinnati Bengals – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
10. New Orleans Saints – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

I’ll probably change my mind and adjust my mock draft about 10 more times between now and draft day, but I’ll be publishing one last look at the entire first round over at FFChamps the week before the draft. If you are a draft-geek like me, or are just fired-up about the start of another fantasy football season, keep checking back. In the meantime leave a comment and let me know what your thoughts are on how the first round will go.