Why the Cardinals will Win

Adrian Wilson and the Cardinals defense have been great this postseason.

I suppose since I use my blog in large part to comment about sports, I can’t escape this week without making some kind of final Super Bowl prediction.  I’ll do so with one disclaimer: I have been anything but accurate this postseason. This year’s NFL playoffs have thrown all kinds of curveballs my way, not the least of which has been the surprising play of the Arizona Cardinals. How a 9-7 team that looked utterly lost and complacent the final month of the season managed to flip the switch and do a complete 180 once the playoffs started is still a mystery to me.

That’s why I’m picking the Cardinals to win.

They have stunned me every step of the way… why not do it on the biggest stage of all? Of course, I need to have more reasons for picking them than simply going against the safe pick (i.e. my better judgment) and I do.

The two units getting the most headlines entering this game have been the Steelers dominant defense and the Cardinals high-octane offense, in particular the passing game.  However, the unit that could very well decide this game in my opinion is the Cardinals defense.  That’s right, the same defense that has ceded more than two touchdown passes per game since the season started right on through the playoffs.  No, I have not started my pregame partying just yet. Adrian Wilson, Dominique Rodger-Cromartie, Karlos Dansby et al have taken their game to a new level this postseason.  In three playoff games, they have intercepted eight passes and shut down three of the best running backs in the NFL, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Brian Westbrook.  That’s impressive. This is not a defense to be taken lightly, especially against the run.

It just so happens that the Steelers like to chew up clock with Willie Parker and the running game, score maybe 20-something points, and then let their incredible defense do the rest. That game plan won’t work this Sunday. The Cardinals will shut down Fast Willie and probably hold him under 50 yards.  As a result, Ben Roethlisberger will have to throw more than he wants to against this suddenly ball-hawking secondary.  Complicating that scenario for Pittsburgh is the fact that their No. 1 receiver Hines Ward is still recovering from a sprained ligament in his knee and will not be anywhere close to 100 percent for this game.  Who’s going to pick up the slack on offense? Santonio Holmes? I think not.

Having said all that, unless the Steelers defense scores some points, I seriously doubt Pittsburgh will crack 20 points this Sunday.   In must be noted at this point that in every game the Steelers lost this season they scored 20 or fewer points.  Now, will it be tough for the Cardinals to crack 20 points in this game as well? Sure it will. The Steel Curtain allowed a league-low 13.9 points per game — an average aided by two games each against the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns.

However, I see this game resembling the Steelers Week 9 matchup with the Colts, a game that Peyton Manning and the boys won 24-20.  Kurt Warner has rediscovered the mojo he temporarily lost the last month of the season, Larry Fitzgerald has been unstoppable, Edgerrin James has turned back the clock a few years, and Anquan Boldin is allegedly healthy (albeit not particularly happy).  Edge won’t be a factor against the Steelers; it’s Warner who clearly holds the key. He won’t be fazed by the big game pressure because he’s played in two Super Bowls already. Nor will he be fazed by the Steelers pressure. Pittsburgh generates their pass rush with the blitz, something that Warner showed last week that he handles with aplomb when Jim Johnson’s Eagles threw the kitchen sink at him.  More often than not, Warner will counter-punch the Steelers blitz with quick strikes over the middle. And when the Steelers don’t blitz and he gets some time… look out for Fitz.

My final prediction: the Cardinals will win Super Bowl XLIII by a final score of 23-20. That’s two Cardinals touchdowns and three Neil Rackers field goals.  In other words, given my “success” thus far this postseason, go put your money on the Steelers to win one for the other thumb.